Emmy Picks, Predictions, Unsung Heroes & Oh-No-Nos – 2014

It’s that time of year again, gang! The 66th Primetime Emmy Awards are tonight, and I’ve had perhaps hundreds of people asking me if I’ll be announcing my picks, predictions, unsung heroes and oh-no-nos this year. To which the answer is, of course, yes.

1. Outstanding Comedy Series
Nominated: The Big Bang Theory, Louie, Modern Family, Orange Is The New Black, Silicon Valley, Veep

Four of the six nominees return from last year’s selection, with Orange Is The New Black and Silicon Valley both getting nods for their debut seasons. The big surprise for me is the inclusion of OITNB, possibly at the expense of critical favourite Girls, because I had always thought of it more as a drama. It actually makes perfect sense for OITNB to submit itself under the comedy categories, because there is a lot more humour in it than in most dramas (and certainly more than in any prison drama I can think of), and the drama categories are extremely competitive this year. Plus, if The Big Bang Theory is calling itself a comedy, I think anything is fair game at this stage.

You’ll probably remember that I was very disappointed with Modern Family last year, and didn’t even predict it would win this award for the fourth year running, although I was mistaken. This season, though, it was back to its best, and was probably the funniest of the shows nominated, although it still doesn’t get my shout. I’ve opted to go for OITNB, partly because Modern Family already has four of these awards, but mainly because OITNB was excellent. Veep‘s third season was good, but not as good as its second, and Louie took more of a dramatic turn this year, but was still one of the best things on TV. Silicon Valley was something of a pleasant surprise for me; rather like TBBT but with laughs and three-dimensional characters. I watched it because I thought there would be lots of Martin Starr’s brilliant branch of cynicism, and although there wasn’t as much of that as I would have liked, I really enjoyed the show. I’ve said before that there should really be a separate award for new shows, and I hereby reiterate that, because Silicon Valley definitely deserves some kind of recognition.

I feel rather like a broken record at this point, but I remain flabbergasted that It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia has still not been nominated. Parks And Recreation should really have had a nod by now as well, and Broad City was more than good enough to make this list.

My Pick – Orange Is The New Black
My Prediction – Modern Family
My Unsung Hero – It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia
My Oh-No-No – The Big Bang Theory
N.B. Orange Is The New Black is competing for awards based on its first season, not its recent second. As for the matters of comedy vs. drama and why some of the cast are up for guest roles and some for supporting roles, Denise Martin of Vulture has explained the whole thing very well.

2. Outstanding Drama Series
Nominated: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game Of Thrones, House Of Cards, Mad Men, True Detective

There has been a lot of good drama this year, and several shows can consider themselves unlucky to have missed out. I’ve never been a huge fan of Homeland, but it had, for my money, its best season so far, yet has not been nominated. There were two other shows I watched this year that I didn’t expect to enjoy as much as I did: The Newsroom and Masters of Sex. Both of these would have virtually no chance of winning against such popular shows as Breaking Bad, Mad Men and True Detective, but both (particularly the former) would have been deserving of a nomination.

Despite what I’ve already said about the competitiveness of this category, it was not too hard for me to pick a winner: Breaking Bad has to take home the prize. It is not easy to wrap up a hugely popular high stakes drama in a way that will satisfy most fans (see Sopranos, The), but Vince Gilligan has done a terrific job with the final season of Breaking Bad.

House Of Cards, Mad Men and True Detective all had great seasons, but none of them quite measure up for me. The ending of True Detective felt a bit flat, and one could debate whether it better fits this category or the miniseries one (again, I will refer you to Vulture, where Denise Martin has explained everything). House Of Cards is great TV, but it is still a bit too silly for me to take as seriously as some of the other shows on this list.

My Pick – Breaking Bad
My Prediction – Breaking Bad
My Unsung Hero – The Newsroom
My Oh-No-No – Game Of Thrones

3. Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominated: Louis C.K., Don Cheadle, Ricky Gervais, Matt LeBlanc, William H. Macy, Jim Parsons

I am surprised but pleased to see Matt LeBlanc nominated for the excellent Episodes, of which I thought I must be the only viewer. I’d highly recommend it if you haven’t seen it; Tamsin Greig and Stephen Mangan star as a British TV-writing couple who move to L.A. to remake their successful show, but are forced to cast LeBlanc in the lead role, for which they think he’s wrong. He does a great job of sending himself up, and is far deeper, funnier and more entertaining than his Friends character ever allowed him to be.

Louie is an unusual show in that Louis C.K. is the only real regular character. His two daughters and ex-wife appear often, as do a couple of romantic interests and a few of his stand-up colleagues, but C.K. is the only person to appear in every episode. As such, a lot of the burden is on his shoulders, something with which he deals very well. For this season, C.K. really pushed the boat out and made a several-feature-length dramatic-comedic masterpiece that really needs to be seen in its entirety to be appreciated. As far as I’m concerned, he nailed it, and he’s my pick for the Emmy this year.

I generally quite like Ricky Gervais, but I thought Derek was such a massive swing and a miss that I’ve put him in the spot normally reserved exclusively for Jim Parsons. I didn’t find the show offensive (although I could see why some might), I just found it hugely unfunny and a real departure from the kind of comedy he normally does so well.

This year, the gang tried desperately to win an award, yet there is still no nomination for any of the Paddy’s Pub crew. Any of the main It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia cast could easily have been nominated this year, but for me Charlie Day has the most reason to complain. He continues to be one of the funniest people on TV, in a show that is no longer as underground as it once was, so the old “we didn’t know the show was on” excuse is wearing a bit thin.

My Pick – Louis C.K.
My Prediction – Jim Parsons
My Unsung Hero – Charlie Day
My Oh-No-No – Ricky Gervais/Jim Parsons

4. Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Nominated: Lena Dunham, Edie Falco, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Melissa McCarthy, Amy Poehler, Taylor Schilling

Taylor Schilling is a strange one as, even though her character is based on the main subject of a real-life memoir, she doesn’t have much more screen time than the rest of the OITNB cast. I’d say she is a perfectly deserving nominee, this oddity aside, but she shouldn’t (nor should anyone else) be winning ahead of comedy titans Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Amy Poehler. JLD has won this award three times before and, while it is criminal that she only received one supporting actress Emmy for Seinfeld, it is surely Amy Poehler’s turn now. This is her fifth nomination for Parks And Recreation, but she has lost each of the last four years. I suspect JLD will pip her again, which is a shame, but I’m not about to tell you she doesn’t deserve another award.

Either of the two Broad City leads, Ilana Glazer and Abbi Jacobson, could easily be on this list. While I like Girls, as I’ve mentioned before it doesn’t seem like an out-and-out comedy, whereas I think Broad City is the show that Girls should be, based on the hype surrounding it. Lena Dunham fully deserves her place on this list, but no more so than Glazer and Jacobson do.

My Pick – Amy Poehler
My Prediction – Julia Louis-Dreyfus
My Unsung Hero – Ilana Glazer/Abbi Jacobson
My Oh-No-No – None

5. Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Nominated: Bryan Cranston, Jeff Daniels, Jon Hamm, Woody Harrelson, Matthew McConaughey, Kevin Spacey

This is a tough one, because I can’t really find much fault with any of these performances. Kevin Spacey talks to the camera a lot, but this is fully-fitting with the silliness of House Of Cards and the fast-paced structure of the show. I’ve long been a big Woody Harrelson fan, and Matthew McConaughey really impressed me recently in True Detective, as well as in the excellent film Dallas Buyers Club. Jon Hamm once again turned in a top performance in Mad Men, as did Jeff Daniels in the hugely underrated The Newsroom. However, Walter White will go down in history as one of the great TV characters, and I can’t see any reason to argue with that, or any reason to deny Bryan Cranston a fourth Emmy for the role.

I enjoyed Michael Sheen’s performance in Masters Of Sex, and although he’d definitely be the outsider in this group, he can feel a little hard done by not to be nominated. It took me several episodes to stop seeing Wesley Snipes, but the only real problem with Sheen’s portrayal of Bill Masters is one largely outwith his control: he is incurably British. His accent is very convincing, only really crumbling on the word ‘orgasm,’ which, unfortunately for Sheen, makes frequent appearances in the script. His face, however, gives him away as a Brit in disguise. Sometimes, however American he may sound, he looks so unmistakably British that the illusion is shattered. He might want to try growing a beard; that seemed to work for Hugh Laurie, another of the most obviously British people to grace American TV.

My Pick – Bryan Cranston
My Prediction – Bryan Cranston
My Unsung Hero – Michael Sheen
My Oh-No-No – None

6. Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Nominated: Lizzy Caplan, Claire Danes, Michelle Dockery, Julianna Marguiles, Kerry Washington, Robin Wright

Lizzy Caplan was the reason I watched Masters Of Sex in the first place, and was easily the best thing about it. I hadn’t really seen her in a dramatic role before, and I thought she did an excellent job in the show’s first season, so she is my pick for this category. Caplan’s occasional co-star Allison Janney won the Emmy for Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series last weekend. I’m a big fan of Janney’s acting generally, and particularly enjoyed her moving storyline, so I was very pleased to see her win.

Robin Wright and Claire Danes were also at the top of their game in their roles, and I suspect Wright will win the Emmy for her extremely moving performance as Claire Underwood. I was surprised to see Elisabeth Moss absent, as she has been nominated several times for her performance on Mad Men, and I thought this season was one of her best yet.

My Pick – Lizzy Caplan
My Prediction – Robin Wright
My Unsung Hero – Elisabeth Moss
My Oh-No-No – None

7. Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominated: Fred Armisen, Andre Braugher, Ty Burrell, Adam Driver, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Tony Hale

This award has gone to a Modern Family actor three of the last four years, and I would imagine it will again in 2014. Phil (Ty Burrell) has always been my favourite character on the show, but I would go for Jesse Tyler Ferguson this time. He has lost once to Burrell and twice to his on-screen partner Eric Stonestreet, and I thought the fifth season was the best so far for his character. Ferguson is my pick, but I’d also be happy to see it go to Adam Driver, who plays Adam on Girls and reminds me of my good friend and noted stud Doug. Tony Hale won it last year for his role as Gary on Veep, and he staked a pretty good claim to retain his award this year.

I am no longer surprised to see Nick Offerman’s name absent from the list of nominees, but I remain extremely perplexed and disappointed by his omission. Ron Swanson is one of my very favourite comedy characters, but then again, so is George Costanza, and Jason Alexander never won this award in nine years. Perhaps this award is just destined never to go to the right person (David Hyde Pierce being the notable exception).

Fred Armisen wins the Oh-No-No spot this year for no particular reason other than I just find him quite annoying.

My Pick – Jesse Tyler Ferguson
My Prediction – Adam Driver
My Unsung Hero – Nick Offerman
My Oh-No-No – Fred Armisen

8. Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Nominated: Mayim Bialik, Julie Bowen, Anna Chlumsky, Allison Janney, Kate McKinnon, Kate Mulgrew

Julie Bowen has won this award twice before, and could easily do so again, consistently being one of the best things about Modern Family. Anna Chlumsky also put in a great performance on Veep, earning herself a second nomination and putting her in the frame for a first win. However, I think this one has to go to Kate Mulgrew for her role as Red on Orange Is The New Black. There’s a great deal to love on that show, and so many characters that don’t get enough screen time, but Red is one of my favourites. There’s a lot of darkness to Red’s character, which is further explored in the second season, whereas in the first she is something of a mystery, while still being a high-profile figure within the prison. Mulgrew is well-practiced at conveying all of that in one look, and gets my pick for this one.

I initially had Natasha Lyonne down as my unsung hero for this category, but then realised that she had put herself forward as a guest actress (see detailed explanation above), losing out to her excellent co-star Uzo Aduba. Instead, I’ve given honourable mention to Alison Brie of Community, another show that doesn’t get enough Emmy love. Cancelled by NBC despite a return to form, Community will get its much-discussed sixth season on Yahoo Screen next year (movie almost certainly to follow).

My Pick – Kate Mulgrew
My Prediction – Julie Bowen
My Unsung Hero – Alison Brie
My Oh-No-No – Mayim Bialik

9. Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nominated: Jim Carter, Josh Charles, Peter Dinklage, Mandy Patinkin, Aaron Paul, Jon Voight

Dean Norris isn’t here, so this category is pretty much void already. How he doesn’t even receive a nomination after such a fine performance in the final season of Breaking Bad is beyond me. The cliffhanger ending of the mid-season finale was a game-changer for Walt and for the viewers, but most importantly of all for Hank, who now has to relate to everyone in his life in a completely different way. This is not an easy thing to portray, but I thought Norris did it extremely well. He’s my unsung hero, in case you couldn’t tell.

In his absence, the award should (and probably will) go to his co-star Aaron Paul. I also enjoyed Mandy Patinkin’s performance as Saul in Homeland; he had a lot to deal with this season, and arguably took on a leading role with Damian Lewis absent for so much of the main story.

My Pick – Aaron Paul
My Prediction – Aaron Paul
My Unsung Hero – Dean Norris
My Oh-No-No – Peter Dinklage

10. Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Nominated: Christine Baranski, Joanne Froggatt, Anna Gunn, Lena Headey, Christina Hendricks, Maggie Smith

As much as I love Christina Hendricks (and I do), it’s very, very difficult to see past Anna Gunn for this year’s award. Skyler saw her relationships with her sister and brother-in-law deteriorate, as well as that with her son threatened, all because she had reluctantly stuck by her husband throughout his drug problem/empire. Gunn portrayed all of this brilliantly, and although her character hadn’t always been one I liked, I felt a great deal of sympathy for her impossible predicament.

Olivia Munn gets my shout for unsung hero for her sometimes-funny-sometimes-depressing turn as Sloan Sabbith on The Newsroom. Sloan moves from the background to the foreground as the series goes on, and becomes more and more likeable with each episode. Did I mention I’m extremely sad that there are only going to be six more episodes of The Newsroom? Well, I am.

My Pick – Anna Gunn
My Prediction – Anna Gunn
My Unsung Hero – Olivia Munn
My Oh-No-No – Lena Headey

 

As I’m sure you’ve all noticed, I’ve expanded from seven to 10 categories this year. This is mainly because I seem to have watched more TV than last year, or perhaps just more relevant TV. Either way, it’s jolly nice of me to keep you all so well-informed, so well done me.